Case in point: the American Black Cherry ( Prunus serotina) has been invading Western Europe since the early 20th century. It is because I have some faith in the richness of the little world’s genetic raw material and the blind, brute power of evolution that I am less worried about “invasive” plants than I used to be. That’s good, because most things on Earth are little. The inhabitants of little world evolve very quickly, making them nimble in the Anthropocene. Besides, what Abstruse Goose did with his Bayesian priors here just made my neurons go on the fritz. And since I don’t do math, you shouldn’t take my word for any of this. I’d argue the real Bayesian prior is that Harrison Ford was signed up for the sequel.Īnyway, it’s logic done with math. Example here: will Han Solo make it through the asteroid field? 100%, period. Turns out you’ll be a better predictor if you take into account - before (prior to) making the prediction, mind you - how likely any given scenario is.
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Bayes’ excellent title ), in which he tries (“essays”) to figure out (not that I’ve read the essay) how to make predictions most accurately. I know a little because I like saying “Bayesian priors.” The Reverend Thomas Bayes, 1700’s, wrote “An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances” ( source: Wikipedia, without shame but with admiration for Rev. This one you can figure out without knowing what Bayesian priors are.
And now, with no explanation (and we don’t need one), he’s back amongst us and our hearts rejoice. Our boy is back! Abstruse Goose was our go-to back-up for 100 years, then he unaccountably disappeared for another hundred. I asked my physical therapist if I should undertake an intensive rehabilitation protocol I found by scouring PubMed. But because of a glitch with my insurance, I couldn’t see that doctor again. She diagnosed me with posterior tibial tendonitis - inflammation of the tendon that runs along the inside of the leg from the big toe into the calf. No matter how long I rested, however, the pain would always return.Ī few months ago, I finally went to see a doctor. I’d power through a tough workout at the gym, the ankle would hurt. I thought I was cured.īut each time I tried to be more active, the pain would return. So I took a break from running, and the ankle pain went away. But after the race, I had a nagging ache in my ankle. I figured five miles wasn’t going to kill me, and it didn’t. I ran a five-mile race with little training.
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